Hey everybody! Today I'm going to take you back to 2010 to look at one of the most brutal beats in the history of the World Series of Poker Main Event.
Matt is on the button with a re-raise to 1,550,000. We start with Jonathan Duhamel in the cutoff with pocket Jacks. He makes a standard open raise to 575,000, and Matt Affleck right behind him on the button wakes up with pocket Aces. He raises it up to 1.5 million—so far, so good.
Now, 2010 was the year that I made my deepest run. I got 141st; I was actually the chip leader for most of one day—I think it was day five or so. I remember being directly to Jonathan Duhamel's left on the exact bubble, and there were many times where I was the biggest stack and he was the second biggest stack. We had a ton of short stacks at our table. He was opening a bunch of hands while I was three-betting—I think like five times in a row—really pushing that bubble advantage and the fact that people don’t like to bust out.
I just remember him getting frustrated and folding, hoping that I wouldn’t do it the next time. But I was kind of young and relentless back then. Anyway, he’s in the same spot with Matt Affleck to his left. With pocket Jacks, he’s certainly not going anywhere. There are 15 left in the main event; while ICM is a consideration, they’re certainly not on the bubble—and Jacks are not going anywhere.
Now you could just call here with pocket Jacks—and I think that's what I would have done—especially given ICM implications. Yes, he's got a chip advantage over Matt Affleck but not by much. Making the final table of the main event is worth so much from chipping up and laddering up in payouts.
This was also the first year of the November Nine; the main event was played in July, and they would play down to a final table and then stop until November so they could live-stream it on delay. They felt viewership was dropping off because so many people knew who won. This was during an era when a lot of sponsorship money was being thrown around, so making the November Nine was really valuable.
All of that would have been going through my head; I imagine it's going through his head as well. So I would just call here with Jacks. He decides to four-bet instead, and I actually want to point out maybe the most interesting part of this whole hand: facing this four-bet of almost 4 million in chips, Matt Affleck just calls.
I want to talk about this because I really like this call—not only do I like it in theory but I really like what it says about Matt Affleck's grit and toughness. Your opponent is representing a very strong range but he's going to have a polarized range—he's going to have some really strong pre-flop hands and some very weak hands.
Now with those strong pre-flop hands, you're probably going to get all-in post-flop anyway, so you want to keep in his bluffs so you can win more money post-flop. The reason I give Matt so much credit here is because first of all this was 2010—we didn’t understand just how good flatting with Aces here really was.
Also, this is the biggest stage he’s ever been on; at this point he has a ton of chips super deep in the main event. Just shoving all-in here and kind of ending the sweat is really comfortable—it’s easy to want to do that—but he instead decides to get uncomfortable, head to the flop, give his opponent a chance to suck out but make the +EV play that will earn him more money in the long run.
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The Flop
Jonathan Duhamel flops an overpair with a gutshot ( ), and this is about as good of a flop as he could have hoped for—short of flopping a . Even if he's behind, as you can see here, he has 27% equity with his two outs to the and four outs to the . He usually has around 25% equity against better hands. There's only two times the pot remaining, so I would be looking to get all the money in here if I were Duhamel.
I think it's interesting to consider whether he should bet a small to mid sizing or check to check-shove, trying to induce a bet from a hand like suited, thinking that he has or . I think it’s worth considering just open jamming for 2x pot. I know that sounds a little extreme, but you have to remember this is again the main event; ICM is a huge consideration. You don’t want to give free cards; you’d like to just end the hand and take down this 8 million.
If he has a hand like Aces or Kings, it’s not really crazy to 2x pot jam and just end the hand. So if I were Duhamel, I think the play I would choose would be to check-shove. But I actually think it’s really interesting to just overbet-jam. You’re not going to get many worse hands to call; you might get a hand like suited to call, which you dominate, or a hand like suited, which you also dominate. But you also might get a hand like Queens to fold, which is really valuable when the pot is this big.
You also deny some free cards and so forth. So I think jamming is reasonable; I think his check is reasonable as well. He decides to check it over, and Affleck with his Aces decides to bet 5 million.
I think he could check back and continue the slow play because I would expect Duhamel to actually have a lot of missed Ace-King or King-Queen bluffs that won’t have much equity to improve. You don’t mind letting them bluff later or letting them catch up to a worse pair. The pot is big; you almost surely have the best hand with Aces. I can’t really fault him for betting here.
He bets 5 million and it’s back to Duhamel. I would just rip it in here with pocket Jacks. Yes, you're behind a lot, but what are you going to do on the turn? You can’t really avoid getting the money in here. You have 27% equity—basically at worst around 25% equity at worst.
I think it’s very likely when you four-bet and then check in this spot—remember they don’t have to have Aces and Jacks pre-flop. Duhamel could have suited; Affleck could have suited; he could have —there are a lot of hands that they could each have that would need to bluff in this situation and many hands that Duhamel could have that need to check-fold.
Even a hand like is really uncomfortable on this Ten-high flop when your four-bet gets called. So I would shove here; yes, sometimes this is going to happen—you’re going to get your money in bad—but you're also going to deny equity to a hand like .
There’s so much in the pot already; I would just shove it in and try to take it down. Instead, Duhamel calls, and we head to the turn.
The Turn
Well, he does make the call! Over 18 million in the middle now—a big pot—and we could see a significant change in the pecking order. The turn card is the Queen of Diamonds. Duhamel now has an up-and-down straight draw while Matt’s Aces are still good.
That card gives Duhamel more outs if he thinks he's up against a big pair or a set. Duhamel checks again, and Affleck finds himself in his familiar pose: "I'm all-in." He says all-in for 11.6 million.
The turn is the Queen of Diamonds giving Duhamel an open-ender now. You can see his equity drop from 27% to 21%; that's because there’s only one card left to come—but this is kind of an improvement for him.
There’s 11.5 million effective in stacks and 18.5 million in the pot. It’s important to keep in mind that in these tournament situations—especially since these players involved are young—I was young back then and we played a lot of online poker.
Counting the pot is critically important but it's easy to lose track of it when it's live poker and the chips are flying around. Whether or not they know their exact pot odds at this moment—I think they could be a little bit off—and that’s worth keeping in mind.
Often times what I will do is let’s say I'm Duhamel and I check here and then face an all-in from Affleck—that's the point where I would take my time and try to figure out how much money went in—but I don't always have their stack counted down or my stack counted down; I don’t always know exactly how much is in the pot.
Duhamel decides to check; I think I like the check. You're very often going to be up against a better hand or a hand like Ace-Five that has very little equity...
You might be able to get him to bluff after it goes check-check and you make your straight on the river. So, I like this check from Duhamel now that he’s gotten here this way, which I didn’t really love initially. Affleck, with his Aces, I think just has to shove it in. There’s so much in the pot, and he probably has the best hand. Duhamel is going to have some amount of equity like he does here, and just taking it down is what you really want.
Now Duhamel has a tough decision. He’s counting the pot, looking at stacks, and doing the math. There’s roughly 11.5 million left to call, and there’s 18.5 million in the middle plus the 11.5 from Affleck. Basically, he’s getting a little bit worse than 3-to-1 odds here, which means he needs a little bit more than 25% equity.
It actually works out to just under 28% equity that Duhamel needs here to make this call. As we can see, he has 21% equity. So, he doesn’t have the equity to call against Affleck’s actual hand. In reality, his equity is likely going to be around this most of the time; occasionally he’ll see a hand like Jack-Ten and have him crushed, but I think that’s going to be very rare—especially blocking two Jacks.
So I think he can expect to have maybe in the neighborhood of 23% or 24% equity on average. The fact is you need 28% equity to call but you actually need more than that when you factor in the main event ICM situation. You really don’t want to put your whole stack at risk here. I do think this should be a fold for Duhamel, but in the end, he does his math and decides to make the call—and you can see what happens. "
“I call!” Duhamel reluctantly tells the dealer. “Tens and nines?”
“You’ve got Kings, right?” asked Affleck.
This $42 million pot puts Duhamel in a commanding chip-leading position with 14 left in the main event—and the rest is history.
Hope you enjoyed this breakdown! It was fun to look back at this year of the main event which was the most exciting main event year for me given my own run in it and also my good friend of mine who made it to the final table and into the November Nine.