Daniel Negreanu: Hard Talk About High Stakes MTTs
In 1999, if you traveled the world playing the highest stakes tournaments, you couldn’t spend more than $250,000.
In 2013 that number rose to roughly $1.2 million.
In 2025, that number is roughly $12 million.
You need to cash for $12 million+ to turn a profit if you play all the Triton, WSOP, and other high rollers.
In 2024 only 3 players cashed for $12 million:
- Adrian Mateos
$13,109,217 - Patrik Antonius
$12,488,048 - Alejandro Lococo
$12,287,737
Not everyone will hit every stop, but among the high roller regs that play most of them, I think spending $10 million is reasonable considering every Triton stop will run you about $2 million in buy ins.
Only 3 more players cashed for $10 million+:
- Alex Foxen
$11,593,726 - Jonathan Tamayo
$10,298,455 ***WSOP Main Event*** - Daniel Dvoress
$10,298,200
40 players cashed for more than $5 million.
121 players cashed for more than $2 million.
A whopping 259 players cashed for over $1 million in 2024.
Most every pro who is playing this kind of high roller schedule is selling action and/or swapping, so if you see a pro who played them all cash for $7 million in a year, likely losing $3-5 million, they didn’t actually lose that much if anything at all.
If they only sell at markup, they can lose $3-5 million, but still show a profit personally.
Most high rollers have turbo like structures which increase variance and lower the pros ROI significantly, as a lot of these events become a folding battle, focusing on ICM and laddering pay jumps while flipping some coins along the way.
If you want to make a good living as a tournament player, your best bet is to focus on low to mid stakes buy in tourneys.
Low-stakes defined as:
$1500 and below
Mid-stakes:
$2k-$10k
What you envision at the highest stakes is mostly a mirage.
No one playing these rates to have an ROI over $5 million in any given year. Profitable years like that will happen, but they are anomalies rather than the norm.
Adrian Mateos Responds
Daniel, in my opinion only 3/7 players spend over 10m$ in buy ins anually.
To be able to spend that amount you cant miss any stop and play NLH, PLO and short deck.
Also need to be agressive with rebuys.
Last year i played mostly all the stops and spend way lower that number.
Most of the people who cashed for over 5/7m$ had a great year.
There are a lot of players playing for big/decent % of themself too.
I think try to simplify and generalize every player situation is not accurate.
Players have differents bankrolls and schedules even if they are playing same type of tournaments.
Daniel Negreanu – "Ok, most of the guys I spoke with who play them said $10 million is more common than that, but you probably know better since you are in that world."
Sam Greenwood Clarifies
I thought you won a lot in 2024, but after reading Daniel's post, I realize you were one of the 5 high roller regulars to win a small amount last year. Tough life.
"If they only sell at markup, they can lose $3-5 million, but still show a profit personally"
They can also win millions and lose money personally
"No one playing these rates to have an ROI over $5 million in any given year."
No one thinks their yearly EV is close to $5M
Daniel Negreanu – Pros don’t believe their EV is close to $5 million, but most average Joe poker fans have no idea what the top players ROI and yearly expectation is in high rollers. Also, if you read what I said “only” sell at markup, that means they risk no money, so no, they cannot lose personally and make others millions unless they are both selling at markup and investing at face.
Sam Greenwood – After that clarification, I understand what you're saying. I do not know everyone's personal finances, but i think the number of people who regularly play HRs on a freeroll and have no action of themselves at face or on a long term staking deal is very small.
Another high roller complained about his life, but immediately received a rational explanation for his failures.
Sean Winter – Shit, I’m down $23m past 3 years. I was wondering where it all went.
@george_s7411 (with Romanian flag in profile) – This is supposed to happen when you have romanian girlfriend/wife😂 Don't blame poker!
Joshua Arieh said nothing about his balance, but he was easily exposed.
I spent 1.2m in entry fees and I didn’t play a NL higher than $10k…. Actually I played the $25k NL in Bahamas.
@dsobeski – Did you end the year with a profit?
@JoeDiego24 – If he’s referring to 2024, he cashed for $1.15m, so no.
Andrew Sayles wondered – Why do the high rollers have turbo structure? It seems like people coughing up a buy in of that size would prefer a slower structure
Daniel Negreanu – To cater to the recs. They have a better shot in a turbo like format and it doesn’t take a week to finish one event.
@BandfGap63757 – So what you’re saying is the turbo structures are actually better?
@Garrrry23 – Where is all the money going if only a few players are turning a relatively small profit at the highest stakes? Isn’t the rake for Triton also on the lower side?
Daniel Negreanu – No, it’s the highest by a decent margin.
Todd Whittles – Honestly, I think it would be better for everyone if Hendonmob counted the buy-ins as well as the prizes. Too bad it's not possible in most cases. So the "winnings" listed there don't mean anything by themselves.
@Signinginisstu1 – Not good – it would lead to a mass exodus of amateurs and semi-professionals who claim to be good, but are not. Such people value their image very much. Many players who are considered to be winning are not really good, and if their ego is hurt publicly, they will simply quit poker.
Matt Salsberg – It's a shame that the GPI rating is tailored for high rollers. It would be nice to develop two systems, one strictly for high rollers, and the other for those who play for $10k and less. After all, if the first category includes no more than 75-100 people, then the second – at least 20 thousand!
Eugenio Giordano asked Twitter AI Grok to apply Negreanu's calculations to mid-stakes players to test Daniel's advice. The language model responded with vagueness and lack of specificity.
Grok – Mid-stakes regulars playing tournaments with buy-ins from $2,000 to $10,000 face less risk than high-stakes professionals, but they still have to invest a lot. A packed 2024 schedule of 29 WSOP events will cost around $340,000. Prizes exceeding a million dollars, such as winning one of the WSOP 10K events, are rare, but when it comes to winning over $100k, hundreds of people have them. Mid-stakes offers lower variance and a stable career, as the ROI of skilled professionals is increased by more amateurs. The recipe for success is smart selection and cost control.
There were also positive responses, among which it is worth highlighting a short post by Eric Haber, one of the first online backers in poker history, who knows real ROI figures firsthand.
Austin Safko – To show that the poker life isn't as glamorous as it looks, even at the top level. We always see the good of poker – the wins, the glory – not the run bad. I think Daniel highlights how brutal the game is, no matter how good you are
POKERfilms – Thank you for this post Daniel. It is important that people understand the game for what it is... not what it looks like. This game is beautiful and can help change lives for the better. But chasing something that isn't real will only leave a person defeated inside.
Eric Haber – Good thread. Obviously the numbers and overall analysis are still pretty r aw, but the general direction is very indicative. Great work, keep it up DN!
