Here's the original Japanese article on PokerQZ.com
1. Poker as a Game of Uncertainty
When you play poker, you know your hand and the chips stacked in front of you, but you don't know the identity of the cards remaining in the deck, or the combination of cards held by the player opposite you. Everything except the face-up community cards is subject to guesswork and probability.
For example, in Texas Hold'em, the community cards of the flop (first three cards), turn (fourth card), and river (fifth card) are gradually revealed. Each time, your predictions of the future, such as "Maybe I'll make a straight," or "Maybe my opponent is hiding with a strong hand," are updated one after another. The cards that have not yet been revealed are, so to speak, a mass of "superimposed possibilities."
In quantum mechanics, electrons and photons are thought to exist as "waves of probability" until they are observed, and are not fixed to a specific position or state. The world of poker can also be interpreted as being in an undetermined state with the contents of the cards overlapping "for you, the player." Of course, the cards actually exist as pieces of paper, but in the worldview that comes to your mind, "all the cards are still floating around as possibilities." This feeling is a perfect metaphor for the "uncertainty" that quantum mechanics preaches.
2. "Observation" of the Reaction: Contracting the Wave Function of the Strategy
The quantum world is one in which "nothing is ever determined," but the moment of observation is a different story. When you measure a quantum system, the state converges to a clear point all at once. In poker, whether the other player folds, calls, or raises aggressively – these actions themselves can be considered a kind of "observation."
For example, when you bet an odd amount, your opponent may immediately fold. In that case, the multiple possibilities floating around in your mind, such as "the opponent might be strong" or "maybe a bluff", will instantly settle into one interpretation: "in fact, he wasn't that strong." A phenomenon similar to the "wave function collapse" in quantum mechanics is occurring at the level of the mind.
Of course, the important thing to remember here is that what happens in the world of poker is merely information updates, not quantum phenomena themselves, but as an analogy, the moment when your opponent's actions suddenly deflate your expectations and clear the situation in an instant somehow overlaps with the mysterious atmosphere of quantum measurement.
3. Information and Correlation: Quantum Entanglement and Strategic Networks
One of the most well-known phenomena in quantum mechanics is "quantum entanglement," a phenomenon in which two quantum states are intimately connected across distances, and it appears as if measuring one of them instantly affects the other state.
In real poker, this kind of "action at a distance" doesn't happen, and your change in strategy doesn't immediately change your opponent's strategy before you see their cards. However, if you imagine a world where poker uses quantum strategies, a mysterious relationship may emerge in which the moment you change your strategy in your head, that quantum strategy is directly linked to your opponent.
This is merely a fantasy story, but quantum entanglement shows a scenario in which strategies have a mysterious connection even before they are observed. However, in this article, we are considering real poker. In reality, the story has focused on changing your strategy after "observing" your opponent's actions. Therefore, it is difficult to apply the quantum entanglement-like "direct relationship with your opponent even before observation" to the practice of poker. In other words, in real poker, a direct influence relationship like quantum entanglement cannot occur, so this remains in the world of pure metaphor and theoretical extension.
4. What if Poker Became a Quantum Game?
While playing poker in an actual casino with a quantum bit in hand is not yet a reality, there is a field called "quantum game theory" in the world of theoretical physics and mathematical game theory. In the "quantum games" discussed there, players can use quantum operations as a strategy, and by utilizing superposition states and quantum correlations, new equilibria and strategy patterns that do not exist in classical games can be found.
For example, in non-zero-sum games -- situations in which the overall payoff increases or decreases depending on the actions of the players and Pareto improvements are possible -- it has been pointed out that the introduction of quantum strategies may make it possible to stably achieve a "better state for everyone." In examples such as the Prisoner's Dilemma, quantum strategies can break down dilemma structures that were classically difficult to avoid, resulting in higher total payoffs.
On the other hand, poker is fundamentally a zero-sum game, and its payoff structure does not change from the relationship "winner's points = loser's losses." Because of this nature, even if quantum strategies are introduced, it is unlikely that there will be any "magical improvements" that will expand the pie (total payoffs) and benefit everyone. Even if multiple bluff states are superimposed using quantum manipulation, the total payoffs obtained will not change, and it is possible that the effort required to explore a complex strategy space will simply increase.
However, imagining "what if strategy fluctuated at the quantum level?" is an exercise that broadens strategic thinking. Although it may not be useful at a real poker table, this thought experiment gives probabilistic strategies a "next level of abstraction" and may lead us to re-examine our very concept of strategy.
Quantum game theory is a theoretical extension tool that allows us to rethink the nature of games and the meaning of strategy. Although the visible benefits may be limited in poker, which is a zero-sum game, the idea itself may breathe fresh air into our thinking and open the door to "strategic possibilities" that could not be reached with conventional thinking.
5. Quantum Computing and the Future of Poker Analysis
Poker strategy analysis is extremely complex, and computer simulations and the search for GTO (Game Theory Optimal) strategies are becoming commonplace. However, poker is complex, and the difficulty of playing a game with incomplete information is immeasurable.
This is where the new computing paradigm known as "quantum computing" comes in. Although there are still some issues to be overcome before it can be put into practical use, if large-scale quantum computers become commonplace in the future, it may be possible to instantly search a vast strategic space and obtain an approximate optimal solution.
If quantum algorithms one day revolutionize poker strategy research, the meaning of "reading" and "bluffing" as we know them could change dramatically. This is not a case of "quantum mechanics directly relating to poker," but rather an example of a scenario in which "quantum computing dramatically improves problem-solving capabilities under uncertainty."
6. Quantum Mechanics as a Psychological Metaphor
Quantum theory is known as a counterintuitive field. Strange phrases such as "the state is not determined until it is observed" and "particles are both waves and particles" are elements that confuse beginners in physics. However, this "feeling that does not fit into intuition" may provide a hint for humans to deal with uncertain situations.
In poker, the cards your opponent has in hand or will be dealt are not certain until you observe them (either by seeing them or by them making an action). Given this fact, a quantum-inspired mindset of not jumping to conclusions and keeping multiple possibilities open at the same time can be useful.
The attitude of "holding various scenarios open before the outcome is decided" with flexible thinking makes more sense than you might expect if you consider quantum mechanics as a psychological metaphor. Rather than being overwhelmed by uncertainty, you can use it as an opportunity to continue thinking.
Summary: Quantum Swimming in the Sea of Uncertainty
There may not be a direct relationship between quantum mechanics and poker. However, when we look at the "uncertainty," "information updates," and "observing the situation and choosing between possibilities," we find some surprising similarities.
Quantum theory sends the message that "the world is actually full of uncertainties," while poker asks the question, "How do we choose to act under limited information and uncertainty?" By experiencing the two side by side, we can expand our thinking outside of common sense and bring greater creativity and intuitive insight to decision-making and strategy planning under uncertain circumstances.
The next time you sit down at the table to play your cards, try keeping Schrödinger's cat and the mysterious wave function in the back of your mind. You might find that uncertainty adds a little extra spice to your day.
