Have you seen me playing 25 tables against the best of the world while streaming and still making six figures every single year? Of course, I'm doing something that helps me make faster and better decisions. There is one simple yet very powerful strategy that will make you a ton of money and save you a ton of money for critical river decisions when it comes to hero calling or hero folding. I call this The Funnel Strategy, and all you need to do is focus on one thing only.
I know you might think, "But Ben, there are millions of variables that we need to consider to make good river decisions." I get you, but hear me out.
You can apply this to one cent tournaments, $225,000 tournaments, no matter if you play live or online. As an illustration, I will use three different spots that I recently had in big tournaments in very critical situations, all of them around money bubbles or on the final table.
And you're wondering, so what is it that we should focus on? I understand that in order to make a good decision, we need to focus on the bluffs and value hands our opponent can potentially have. But instead of overcomplicating, I only want you to focus on one thing only, and that will do most of the job.
To do so, we forget about what GTO taught you, forget about what the solver taught you, forget about your balancing when it comes to these spots. It is a battle between two humans, and we tend to do what we think is best, and this is very often not following GTO. The Funnel Strategy works as follows: you think of the hands your opponent can have from preflop to that very river decision, and the closer you get to the river, the tighter the range, the fewer hands are left, like a funnel.
But there's one critical thing you need to consider, and all I want you to focus on are the hands that your opponent will play 90% or more of the time. And I'm not saying you don't need theory at all; yes, you need theory, but more importantly, preflop.
Hand One
So, let's dive into the hand and I'll show you how that works at the real poker tables.
So, let's fast forward to the river. A lot of you guys would be like, "He could have King-Queen, you could have King-Queen, Jack; he could bluff 89; he could bluff 10-9, turning hands into bluffs." That's all you're doing—is focusing on a very likely outcome that just confuses you, and then you end up guessing and you lose a lot of money.
What I do instead is first, let's have a look at preflop and the potential hands he can come to the river with, and I only focus on the hands, the value of hands he will play exactly the way the hand played out. So, let's start with pocket Queens.
It's a final table; two big stacks are playing against each other. He can very likely, in fact, in this ICM scenario, he should be flooding a lot of pocket Queens here, in fact more than 80-90% of the times. So, he can definitely have pocket Queens here and betting the flop, slow-playing, check-calling, going for the check-raise, yes, can totally get to the river with all the pocket Queens.
Pocket eights exactly the same; pocket tens as well, Silma to has pocket Queens. It's an okay flop; he takes a small step to protect his hand, to fold out the Ace-Jacks, to fold out potential hands that have equity here on the button. Then I bet very small on the turn; he could put me on pocket 9s or Ace-8 suited, so he might still be ahead, so he calls it, and then gets on the river.
Pocket Queens, pocket eights, pocket tens; now Ace-Queens, Ace-Queen suited. I think very often, uh, would check the flop because it's a hand where the preflop aggressor can still have Aces and Kings; we can have pocket threes, pocket eights, so Ace-Queen actually wants to pot control again. It's a heavy ICM situation; your top kicker isn't as strong as you might think. It makes more sense to bet pocket hands because once everyone calls or once you face a raise, the hand is done. But with Ace-Queen, the bigger the pot gets, the more difficult it becomes.
Now, that's why I would say Ace-Queen, yeah, sometimes bets, sometimes checks. I would ignore it because, as I said, we focus on what he's very likely doing with all the better hands—pocket Queens, pocket Eights, all the hands that have me beat. I wouldn't even put him on Queen-10 because I think also Queen-10 suited either three-bets preflop or checks the flop, so he gets to the river with a random Queen-T suited only 5% of the time. And that's the problem; you guys focus on the butt, but Ben, he could have this, he could have that. Focus on what he really is going to have from preflop to the river, but you only focus on the 90%, 95%, 85% of the times what he's going to do with those hands that have you beat. Is he going to have pocket threes? No, of course not.
He can't have pocket threes, but let's say in case he could have it, he wouldn't flat it pre-flop. We can also remove that—maybe 3% of the time. Don't focus on these very rare instances. What about Jack-Nine and clubs? Well, again, he would very likely not flat this in position or would three-bet. I'm not saying he'll absolutely never have it—maybe 2-7% of the time—but for my river decision, it doesn't play an important role.
King-Queen offsuit? Ace-Queen offsuit also very often three-bets pre-flop as a bluff. But if he decides to call, he'd very often check. You already see that Ace-Queen sometimes three-bets pre, sometimes checks, and then some of the time doesn't check-raise the river anymore. So once you have Ace-Queen, you put Ace-Queen in the funnel. A lot of the combos leave the funnel because they three-bet pre-flop.
Then you go to the next decision point: Ace-Queen leaves the funnel on the flop very often because it wants pot control. By the river, maybe 30% of Ace-Queen combos remain. He might have Ace-Queen 10% of the time. Apply the same logic for King-Queen. It's very rare.
The raise I'm facing here is like 95% pocket Eights, 95% pocket Queens, 95% pocket Tens, and maybe 2-5% Ace-Queen or Jack-Nine and clubs bluffs. What bluffs can he really have? It's hard to have natural bluffs here. Maybe Ace-Jack and clubs, but even that would continue bluffing the turn with a flush draw. Why check back when he has equity against pocket Nines or an 8?
This is how we approach it. The value hands I'm facing will be in his line 90-95% of the time. The bluffs or hands I beat are only 5-7% of his range. Focus on the most likely outcome—treat it like a funnel. If he shows up with Jack-Nine and clubs, I look like an idiot, but I don't care. Focus on what's likely, not the 2-7% exceptions.
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Hand Two
Let's do the same for another final table with down to five players, three short stacks. Artur and me are the bigger stacks. He jams 40 big blinds into a 20bb pot after I check the flop and he overbets the turn. A lot of you guys would probably argue again, "Oh, he could have 6-5, he could have 9-6!" But let's focus on the hands that have a speed that he's going to play exactly like this.
10-9, boom = 16 combinations, makes sense with a double gutter, overbetting the turn for equity against something like 8-6 suited, 8-5 suited. King-10, another 16 combinations, is a very nice hand; double gutter, overbetting the turn sucks to check-call, you go big instantly for equity against something like 8-7 suited, 8-5 suited. Even like 10-8 or 9-8 would probably have to fold against this overbet, so it makes a lot of sense.
Yeah, King-10, another 16 combinations. Obviously, pocket eights, pocket sevens, Ace-Jack, and I think Ace-Jack is the thinnest value bet he will find on the river. All of these, it's like 16, 16, another depending on the blockers here, 8 combinations per two pair per set. So, yeah, let's just roughly approximately guess 50 to 60 combinations that he will play exactly like this, and that's the process.
And you might think, "Ben, it's still hard for me to grasp," but if you do this over and over and over again, you will start seeing it way quicker. It allows you to play more tables. I'm not thinking about what blockers do I have and what I unblock and block and what not. No, focus on what your opponent is very likely doing, and by doing so, you remove all these like, "Oh, he could have 96, he could have like 10-5 suited and like gutters and blockers," all this stuff. Yeah, could happen 2% of the time, could happen 3% of the time, but at the end of the day, 90-95% of the time, he's going to have those straights, he's going to have those two pairs, and this is what I want you to focus on.
This funnel strategy, paired with focusing on the 90% plus likelihood hands the way the hand plays, that he's going to have it, is going to help you to make so much better river decisions. He could potentially turn his Queen-Nine into a bluff, King-Queen; you might find reasons for him to find these bluffs, but I would find reasons for him to check the Queen-Ten because we still want to pot control. So, we check back some weak Jack-X, we check back Ace-X Spades that calls a turn bet, so if he hits his Queen on the river, he has all reasons to check because he has so much showdown value, and then it goes check-check, and he wins the pot right.
So, I have good reasons again; it might happen sometimes where he says, "You know what, I'm going to put trigger here with Queen-Ten and get this off his whatever A6 hand that he checked back to flop with." So, this is how you have to see it; we can argue about it, but I think we both agree that a Queen-Ten might only happen 20-30-40% of the time, and this is not enough. This is not enough paired with the very unlikely scenario that he's doing this with 96 or 65; he could potentially, but what means potentially? And that leads to very poor river decision-making because you're all potentially, which in reality is probably only going to happen seven or five times versus all those value hands that he is going to have 90% of the time.
And if you would put this in a solver or an equity calculator and you say, "Alright, yeah, he has those value hands 90% of the times here, here, here, here—boom, 60 value combos against potential, in reality, only 10-15 bluff combos," yeah, you're losing money long-term. But you can scrap all these thinking about these very unlikely hands by just focusing on the hands that really make sense. Just think for yourself how would you approach this one right; it's just so easy to be greedy with 10-9 and King-10 and rip it in and try to hope that it sets hero call you by the way.
I find his play very bad because it's very easy to over-fold this spot, and you see if I start over-folding two pair here, that's pretty bad; that's a very bad play to make with a straight in my opinion. So, I folded; he had King-10, and that helped me also here to maintain my good position, and then also reach heads-up next.
Hand Three
So, this is a money bubble, very close to the money bubble; we're in fourth position, 23 left, 15 paid, so we're basically having a top five stack. We're playing against the chip leader; the action goes open raise, call, big blind calls, and we bet the flop, check the turn, river. We make two pair, and now in this spot, you might think isn't it very, very similar right? We face a massive overbet jam or check-raise all-in; it's a bit of a different river action, but again, same situation. We have a bluff catcher with two pair, and now he jams all-in.
Now, this is a little bit different, but let's think about the value hands right. We bet the flop; pocket fives, pocket threes, he plays against two opponents, very draw-heavy. Don't think he's ever going to have Ace-3, pocket threes, or pocket fives; same for pocket eights. Two players are involved; there are going to be a lot of flush draws; it makes no sense. 6-7 makes a lot of sense because you don't want to raise your 6-7 and then I go over the top with pocket fives or pocket eights or the big blind has a two pair. There are a lot of hands that the big blind and button can have that are very nutty and go over the top. So, with 6-7, you're more inclined to just check-call, then you make your straight, you check again on the turn.
So, I would say yeah, for sure he's got to have 6-7, but the thing is, it's only four combinations because he's not opening the off-suited combos. Now, in contrast to this spot, if he has something like pocket sixes, pocket sevens, six-five suited, 7-5 suited, he's also the chip leader, so he's going to be opening really, really wide. He's going to have 9-7 suited, 9-6 suited, also overcard gutters, just check-calls to flop, and then wants to continue playing from the turn. So, he gets to the river with a sh**Dload of potential bluffs.
I played a hand earlier against him where he bluffed me with five high, six high, or whatever it was, with an overbet all-in on the river as well on a very straight board. So, yes, this opponent is capable of doing so.
This is the most important question you have to answer, because even if someone could have potentially all these bluffs, is he capable of doing so against many other opponents? I would just fold, because yeah, he could have a potential 7-5 suited or 9-6 suited and turn it into a bluff, blocking my two pairs. I would still not call.
This is a very important question you have to answer. Now, knowing that this guy is capable of doing so, let's talk about all the potential bluffs he can have. Let's just assume 20 value combinations: 8-7 suited, 6-5 suited, 9-7 suited, pocket sixes, pocket sevens, something like 10-8 suited. So, basically, blocking my rivered at Ace-8, blocking my rivered at Ace-9, all these kinds of 8X, 9X with a six or a seven. Even something like King-Nine of Hearts is a very good bluff jam on the river. That's a lot of combos; however, you need to be disciplined because he's not repping that many value combos as well.
So, you see that all of these potential bluffs make a lot of sense. King-Nine of Hearts, of course, you don't want to raise and get blown off your equity. 9-7 suited, if he has 9-7 in clubs, you really want to see a turn. Some of them, like a 9-6 of Spades, might check-raise or bet, yeah, I get it. But again, he's out of position playing against two opponents; he should be checking a lot. Now, getting to the river, it makes a lot of sense with a lot of these hands to the way he played it—check-call flop, check-check turn, and now he sits there on the river.
Right, there's no point in betting; he still has enough showdown value. He checks his 9-7 and then I bet big, and he realizes, "Well, he bets into two people; I very likely don't have the best hand anymore." And the same for 7-5 suited, 8-7 suited; they should also just check all the flop. He could also have like King-8 suited, Queen-8 suited, Jack-8 suited, 10-8 suited. All these kinds of EVs, 9-8 suited is not raising; I don't think he's raising Ace-3, Ace-5, because you're really repping A8 or A9 here. Ace-9 also makes sense to check from our perspective on the turn because it's a pretty dangerous board here—just a top pair. We really want to pot control and not blow up the pot unnecessarily.
So, in this spot, you see now for the bluffs that they have very little value, but the bluffs, all the potential bluffs he can have, really play it this way.
And that's the kind of process that you want to focus on over and over again. At the end of the day, you play against humans; do you think this guy is playing GTO on the spot? No, of course not. I ended up calling; he had 8-7 offsuit, which is way too loose. So, he probably has even more bluff combos than I actually anticipated, but that happens very often. You more often play against players that play their own style, which might still be profitable, that is far, far away from GTO. That happens way more often.
And if you only focus on GTO and balancing, you're not going to be able to make those exploitative hero calls or exploitative hero folds. I don't think I need to tell anyone that pocket threes are a theory GTO, and probably the solver also wants me to hero call some two pairs, and also here maybe with ICM B, that I should be folding some two pairs on the river. But in this spot, I would actually hero call a lot because of that reason.
You might wonder, "But Ben, how can I do it?" Well, practice, practice, this. It's not like from today to tomorrow that you're going to be magically a crusher when it comes to hero calling or hero folding. But a lot of you guys keep doing something over and over again, and it's not giving you the progress because you focus on the wrong things. Just because you spent a lot of time learning, studying, and practicing poker doesn't make you necessarily better, because you focus on the wrong things.
