Save the Shorty: Which Poker Game Has the Best Odds for Small Stacks?

Daniel posted a poker puzzle on Twitter :

– Scenario:
All players are equally skilled
Chip leader has 100 bbs
Avg stack is 20 bbs
8 players left at a final table with standard pay jumps for each position
Question:
Will the chipleader win more often in NLH or PLO?

The NLH option won by a landslide. Commentators even turned to artificial intelligence for help. The Grok chatbot confirmed this conclusion :

– Research suggests the chip leader wins more often in NLH than PLO at an 8-player final table with equal skill. NLH's lower variance lets the chip leader (100 bbs) pressure short stacks (avg 20 bbs) effectively, while PLO's higher variance gives opponents more chances to recover. Poker forums and a poll (3849 NLH vs 1829 PLO votes) support NLH favoring the chip leader.

But not all professionals agreed with this.

Scott Seiver: depends on the level of skill that they are equal at. Boring answer but the objectively true one.

Daniel Negreanu : Sorry, assume optimal. No players make any mistakes, just like you 😂

Scott Seiver: I would guess we don’t know the answer it’s so much more complicated than ICM looks. Also matters if they play just this one tournament or it’s a player pool that plays regularly. Optimal output would literally change based on that. I would guess it’s NLH but it’s plo in real life. (to really nerd out, its because spite calling is +EV long term but spite calling loses less in PLO)

DeathDonkey: Taking future game to the extreme! :)
Is this why you always give a speech on the bubble that you DGAF about the min cash but then just play good / right anyway?

Scott Seiver: The trick is to actually not give a fuck vs people with good memories and to give fucks to people who won’t notice or care in a month what you did. And yes my brain thinks of all this stupid shit constantly.

Shaun Deeb: I think you misworded this and meant every other stack is 20bb because in this example everyone else having 9bb you just get to go allin every hand so I would say plo is lower variance higher equity when called get called by lower % of hands in a few spots as well

Adam Owen: PLO by a lot surely, especially since introduction of an ante. Inherently higher winrate game. So many more spots to open the deck as CL. The counters are much less effective than in NLHE

Matt Salsberg: It doesn't matter what game, I would have finished 7th in both games.

akaNemsko: It's PLO. Equities run closer and you can't jam to protect your equity as a short stack, so equal short stacks are handcuffed by ICM more in PLO than NLH.

Miguel1001: Crazy how most people think NLHE because you can go allin. If you are somewhat decent and understand icm then for sure it’s PLO. The advantage for the chipleader is that he can play a lot of hands and will be 40/60 or flip with a lot of the hands. As a shortstack you can’t call that often because of icm because you have about 60-65% equity at most with a lot of “great” hands and you should wait it out. As a bigstack you are unpredictable and a 962 flop can be a gin flop for you and they fold vs medium or small bets even.

Daniel published his version the next day:

– My answer to yesterdays question:
Because of ICM pressure, equities running closer hurt the short stacks more.
Imagine chip leader opens with Q964, a trashy hand, to 3.5 bbs.
Big Blind goes all in with AAK7 for 9 bbs, it now costs 5.5 to win 14 for the chip leader to call.
What are the odds of these two hands?
AAK7 58.41%
Q964 41.59%
Compare that to a Hold’em hand:
AA 84.23%
Q9 15.49%
Short stacks are severely handcuffed, especially the middling stacks.
Imagine you have 12 bbs but there are two players who have 3 bbs and 4 bbs.
Chip leader is raising every hand, and even if you get Aces you aren’t going to be a huge favorite if you play an all in.
This forces you, theoretically, to fold almost every hand, waiting for the 3 and 4 bb stacks to bust, ensuring two pay jumps.
As chip leader, you can open any four cards in a lot of cases and the rest of the players just have to significantly overfold, making it profitable for you to pick up the blinds and antes.
The short stacks can’t move in on you to deny equity like they can in NLH, and you usually have enough equity to defend against 3 bets or all ins, so players won’t be able to do it profitably very often.
You are the only one not wearing handcuffs.
So, my answer is PLO.
You see this play out in Dealers Choice tournaments. The chip leader wants to call a game where hand equities run very close, while short stacks want to call games with lower variance and better odds when they do play.
Chip leader might call:
PLO
Limit Omaha Hi
2-7 PL 3 draw
The blood games
Short stacks often call:
Stud Hi Lo Regular
Stud 8
Badeucy
5 Card Draw
2-7 NL Single Draw
Big O