Poker skill plays a key role in winning, but luck is also a significant factor, especially in the short term. To minimize the impact of luck, experienced professionals use various programs to simulate different situations and compare their actions to optimal game theory (GTO).
Some useful programs that help evaluate the influence of luck are called variance calculators. Let's explore how they work and how to use them effectively.
Variance in Poker
Variance in poker refers to the deviation from the average or expected result. The spread can be quite significant at times. Imagine betting the flop five times with only one out and winning all five times. You were expected to lose 5 stacks but instead ended up with a huge profit. The variance, in this case, is the difference between the actual result (+5 stacks) and the mathematically expected result (slightly less than -5 stacks).
If you want to know how to find the variance calculator, there’s a free version you can use on PrimeDope.com.
The most high-variance format in modern online poker is Spin and Go tournaments, due to small stacks, fast blind levels, and a randomly determined prize pool. However, it is still possible to win at them.
Why Use a Variance Calculator?
A variance calculator is a useful tool for professional and amateur poker players who like to plan. The program allows you to calculate scenarios for almost any number of hands, showing several possible deviations from your expected results.
To get personalized results, you'll need to input certain parameters obtained from programs like Holdem Manager 3 or Hand2Note by uploading your hand database:
- Winrate: Your profit or loss at the limit played. More hands in the database increase accuracy.
- Observed winrate: Optional field.
- Standard deviation: Find this value in HM3 under "Std Dev bb per 100 hands". The default is 100.
- Number of hands to simulate: The number of hands to include in the simulation.
How to Use the Variance Calculator for Tournaments:
The last example is for cash games, but this is for poker tournaments (MTTs). Input the following parameters:
- # of players: The population in the tournament or number of participants. Higher population mean higher variance.
- Places paid: The number of players who make the money.
- Buy-in (in $): The tournament entry fee.
- Rake (in %): The poker room's commission.
- Return on Investment (in %): Your ROI at this tournament level.
- How many are you going to play? The number of tournaments to calculate.
- Sample size: The number of calculation options.
- Bankroll (in $): Your total bankroll size.
Analyzing the Data
The variance calculator provides a graph with several lines:
- Black (middle): The mathematical expectation if all hands ended exactly at EV.
- Bold dark green: The range containing 95% of possible results.
- Bold yellow: The range containing 70% of possible results.
- Thin multi-colored: Random calculations (20 out of a million).
Use this data to build effective bankroll management. The tables below the graph provide clear numbers that are more suitable for this purpose.
The tables show:
- The probability of a negative result for the number of hands/tournaments (0% in our example).
- The probability of exceeding or falling short of the observed winrate, if set.
- The minimum bankroll to have less than a 5% chance of going broke (2,996 big blinds in our example).
Bankroll Management Calculation
Variance calculators in poker can be used for various purposes:
- Fun: To see how well or poorly you might run.
- Life planning: To estimate your expected profits over a given number of hands/tournaments.
- Effective bankroll management: The most important use. Proper bankroll management makes it easier to control your game by moving up or down in stakes based on results.
Where to Play Online Poker
Anyone can play poker online from home or anywhere with a stable internet connection using a computer, tablet, laptop, or smartphone.
Online poker is more suitable for professional play than live poker because you can play more hands or tournaments per hour. This makes it easier to weather downswings.
For safe online play, we recommend registering at trusted poker rooms that have proven their reliability and security over the years.
How to Choose Poker Sites like a Pro
GipsyTeam helps beginners start their poker career by allowing them to play for real money for free through promotions constantly offered by poker rooms.
Online poker sites offer various promotions and bonuses to attract new players and reward loyal customers.
The most common offers for beginners include:
- Welcome bonuses: Matching a percentage of your first deposit(s), released incrementally as you play
- No deposit bonuses: Small amounts of free cash or tournament tickets to try real money games risk-free. 888poker is one of the long-running sites that offers everyone this rare bonus.
- Freeroll tournaments: Free-to-enter events with real-money prize pools
- Rakeback deals: Earning back a percentage of the rake or tournament fees you pay, either through the poker room directly or negotiated by affiliates for higher rates. How does 40% rakeback on WPT Global sound? We secured this deal for our members and you can take advantage of it by registering with our link.
The best poker sites for beginners have large player pools at low stakes, easy-to-clear bonuses, beginner-friendly software, and access to freerolls and low buy-in tournaments. Rakeback and loyalty programs that reward frequent play with cash back and other perks add long-term value.
Need personalized help? Send us a quick message, and for free, we’ll help you out with anything poker-related.
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